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VR a Year In Review
So now that consumer VR headsets have been available for over a year it’s time to start comparing sales numbers. As dry as the topic might seem, there’s no better indicator of whether or not Virtual Reality is truly the medium of the future. Now, I could throw a bunch of complicated formulas and equations at you without any context but what good would that do? Numbers in a vacuum are too easily misinterpreted. Instead let’s skip over the dry, academic prelude and instead get right to the heart of the matter. Did VR headsets sell as well in their first year as smartphones did in theirs? This is the main question here since smartphones have basically taken over the entire world. If VR sales were even remotely as successful as smartphones then vr must be gearing up to do the same. (Spoiler alert: 2d media is on its death bed.) So let’s look at some actual numbers shall we?
The iPhone Comparison
The first and best smartphone was undoubtedly the iPhone. The iPhone came out way back in 2007 (yes a full decade ago already) and for tech enthusiasts it was love at first sight. In it’s first year alone the phone sold over 6 million units. Sounds like a lot but how does this compare to VR? It wouldn’t be fair to compare the iPhone sales to all VR headset sales combined so for the sake of journalistic integrity let’s take only one VR device, the Samsung Gear VR. It turns out that the Gear VR sold just over 5 million units in 2016. Just 1 million shy of the phone that changed the world. Sounds promising for VR doesn’t it? Well that’s just the beginning.
Image Credit: Medium
Competing Factors
The fact is, that at the time the iPhone came out there wasn’t really much competition in the way of smartphones. Apple was ahead of the curve and so they basically had a monopoly on the entire market. This is in contrast to the vr space where there are quite a few competitors already. People who already owned an Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, or Playstation VR certainly weren’t interested in picking up a Gear VR. So just for fun let’s look at how many vr units sold when we combine all the different brands. Below is a list of all the main brands next to their estimated sales numbers:
Image Credit: Medium
Number of VR devices sold in 2016:
- 750,000 — PlayStation VR
- 420,000 — Vives
- 260,000 — Google Daydream
- 240,000 — Oculus Rifts
- 2016 Total: 1,670,000 Other VR Devices
As you can see, the number of VR devices sold actually EXCEEDED the number of iPhones sold during their first year. The extra 1.6 million alternative vr heasets combined with the 5 million of the gear vr makes for a total 6.6 million vr devices altogether. That’s half a million more than the iPhone! Not too shabby and a pretty good sign that VR is poised for global domination.
Future Sales
Image Credit Fluento
My gut tells me that VR sales are going to absolutely skyrocket in the near future but my gut is usually wrong. Let’s look at what the experts are predicting for VR over the next few years. According to research firm Tractica, more than 200 million consumer virtual reality head-mounted displays (HMDs) will be sold worldwide by 2020. 200 million headsets is a lot but what does that mean in terms of cold hard cash? Well the company forecasts that consumer virtual reality hardware and content revenue will increase from $108.8 million in 2014 to $21.8 billion worldwide by 2020, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 142%. Whoa! Those are some pretty ambitious numbers. Let’s take a look at how they reached those conclusions.
A number of important factors are expected to contribute to this rise in sales. One of these factors is good old fashioned greed. Samsung made an absolute killing with the Gear VR in 2016. This success means that they are almost certainly going to double down on VR in the coming years in the hopes of increased profit. In the wake of the infamous Note 7 debacle Samsung needs all the help it can get right now the Gear VR is it’s current golden child. Expect much more investment in VR by Samsung moving forward. This not only means better devices and better content but it also means more reasons for consumers to buy VR for themselves, creating a virtuous cycle of VR growth and development.
Image Credit: BlackEnterprise
As other companies see just how much money there is to be made they’re gonna want a piece of the pie too. Tech Juggernauts like Microsoft and Apple are already working on their own niches within the market and their presence in the VR sphere will only accelerate its rate of adoption.
The final and possibly biggest factor to consider is price. The Tractica research firm predicts that the price of VR headsets will drop by about 15% per year. This is in line with most technologies as the cost of production almost inevitably drops as the science advances. VR should be no exception and as the price continues to drop, more people will have access to VR.
Strap Yourselves In
No one could say that smartphones haven’t completely revolutionized our way of life. VR is poised to do the same. When we compare the adoption rates of cell phones to those of VR it’s clear that everything about the numbers suggests that VR is the medium of the future. It’s no longer a matter of if VR is going to take over the world but when. Strap yourselves in boys, it’s gonna be a wild ride.
Interesting analysis…. The VR industry is all set for a big rise and as with days the technology gets cheaper, we can expect faster adoption rates globally
unbelievable that Samsung sold more than 4 million… I always thought that their headsets are not very good.
Interesting point, I never knew that vr headsets have sold more than smartphones at this relative point in their lifecycles. Good sign for VR!